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Prediction for CME (2023-02-24T20:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-02-24T20:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/23915/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME seen mostly to the NW in SOHO LASCO and STEREO A COR2A coronagraphs. The CME is associated with an M3.7-class flare and subsequent eruption from AR3229. The flare induces a large nearby filament channel to break and lift off seen best in SDO/GOES 304, but also in SDO 193 and GOES-16 195. The flare and CME are also associated with a small enhancement in 10 MeV protons observed at GOES. The likely arrival of this CME (possibly a glancing blow) is first seen at 2023-02-26T18:43Z in DSCOVR data as a rapid increase in magnetic field from 10 nT to near 20 nT as well as a simultaneous increase in solar wind speed from 470 km/s to 540 km/s and density from 10 to 20 particles/cc.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-02-26T18:43Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-02-26T18:30Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-02-24 23:01
 - Time at C2: 2023-02-24 20:36
 - Radial speed: 1441.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 39 deg
 - Eruption location: N24W20
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 838.30 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2023-02-26 18:30 (i.e. predicted transit time: 45.92 hours)
Lead Time: 43.13 hour(s)
Difference: 0.22 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2023-02-24T23:35Z
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